Key Points
Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN), a maker of high-end electric vehicles, went public at $78 per share on Nov. 10, 2021. It closed at a record high of $172.01 just six days later, but it only trades at about $15 today. During the same period, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) rallied nearly 120%.
Rivian initially impressed investors because it was already producing thousands of vehicles, and it was backed by Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). But in 2022, it produced only 24,337 vehicles — compared to its original target of 50,000 — as it struggled with supply chain issues. By early 2023, Ford had sold nearly all of its Rivian shares.
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Image source: Rivian.
Rivian more than doubled its production to 57,232 vehicles in 2023 as it overcame some of those challenges, but that figure shrank again to 49,476 in 2024 and 42,284 in 2025. That failure to expand its business, along with its staggering losses, weighed down its stock.
But with a market cap of $22 billion, Rivian trades at less than three times this year’s sales. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), which is worth $1.5 trillion, trades at 14 times this year’s sales. So could some fresh catalysts drive investors to revalue Rivian as a higher-growth EV stock? Let’s see if it can bounce back and outperform the S&P 500 through the end of the decade.
What are Rivian’s upcoming catalysts?
Rivian produces four vehicles: the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, R2 SUV, and custom electric delivery vans (EDVs) for Amazon and other companies. The R1T and R1S both start at around $80,000.
Those high prices limit Rivian’s total addressable market, so it launched the more affordable R2 earlier this year, which starts at less than $60,000. It plans to launch even cheaper trims of the R2 — which will start between $45,000 and $54,000 — throughout late 2026 and 2027.
The R2 costs roughly half as much to build as its R1 vehicles, thanks to its simpler design, consolidation of its electrical systems, and streamlined powertrains and sensors. Therefore, Rivian can sell the R2 at higher gross margins than the R1, even with a lower price tag.
Rivian expects its deliveries to soar from 42,247 vehicles in 2025 to 65,000-67,000 vehicles in 2026 (including about 20,000-25,000 R2 SUVs). If it achieves that goal, analysts expect its revenue to surge 38% to $7.4 billion this year and 58% to $11.8 billion in 2027.
What are Rivian’s upcoming catalysts?
Over the next few years, Rivian will mainly focus on ramping up its production of the R2. To support that expansion, it will need to expand its production beyond its main plant in Illinois by bringing its new Georgia plant online by 2028.
Rivian expects the Georgia plant to increase its annual production capacity by 300,000 vehicles, and it’s expanding the Illinois plant’s capacity to 215,000 vehicles. Therefore, we could see Rivian’s annual production exceed half a million vehicles by the end of the decade.
By the late 2020s, Rivian plans to launch its smaller R3 SUVs (an R3 hatchback and a rally inspired R3X) at even lower prices to reach a younger demographic. Those vehicles, which will be built on the same low-cost platform as the R2, could drive its sales even higher.
As Rivian produces more of these higher-margin vehicles, economies of scale will kick in. It will also likely expand its joint venture with Volkswagen (OTC: VWAPY), which generates high-margin revenues by licensing its electronic architecture and software to the automaker.
Rivian ended its latest quarter with $5.85 billion in total liquidity. But if we include all of its projected capital streams from Volkswagen, Department of Energy loan facilities, and pending investments, it still has more than $14 billion to fund its ambitious expansion.
Analysts expect all those catalysts to boost Rivian’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) into positive territory by 2028. They also expect it to gradually narrow its net losses on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis.
Where will Rivian’s stock be by the end of 2030?
If Rivian matches analysts’ estimates and generates $15.6 billion in revenue in 2028, and it trades at a more generous 10 times sales, its stock could soar sevenfold within the next two years. If it increases its annual production to half a million vehicles by the end of the decade, its stock could command a higher valuation and soar even higher by 2030.
Therefore, Rivian could still easily outperform the S&P 500 through 2030. But it can’t do that without successfully ramping up its R2 deliveries and opening its Georgia plant.
Should you buy stock in Rivian Automotive right now?
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Leo Sun has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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