Ford (NYSE: F) recently announced a significant change in strategy by pivoting away from plans for a three-row electric SUV and opting to introduce it as a hybrid instead. This decision underscores a broader strategic shift within the company, reallocating resources towards hybrids while stepping back from emphasizing electric vehicles (EVs).
Despite incurring costs for these changes, I predict that this strategic shift will prove beneficial for Ford in the long run.
Strategic Realignments
Alongside the decision to alter plans for the three-row electric SUV, Ford unveiled several other pivotal changes. The company announced a delay in the release of the F-150 Lightning’s successor to 2027, with plans to commence production of a new electric van targeting tradespeople and commercial users by 2026. Additionally, Ford intends to roll out a medium-sized electric pickup in 2026 and relocate battery production from Poland to Michigan to leverage tax credits.
Ford anticipates a $400 million non-cash writedown on the abandoned electric SUV and expects additional expenses, including capital expenditures (capex) totaling $1.5 billion. The company intends to decrease its pure EV-focused capex from the planned 40% to 30%, highlighting the rising demand for hybrids as a driving factor behind this decision. Ford further pledged to refrain from introducing any new EV models unless they demonstrate the potential to generate positive EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) within the initial 12 months post-launch.
Shifting Dynamics: From EVs to Hybrids
The timing of Ford’s announcement aligns with a period of decelerating growth in EV sales and escalating competition within the sector. Despite the record 11% increase in EV sales in the U.S. during the second quarter, the pace significantly slowed compared to the over 50% growth witnessed last year.
The introduction of numerous EV models by various companies has precipitated notable discounting tactics. For instance, the new Kia EV9 recorded an average $18,000 discount below MSRP in June. To provide context, the typical customer offer for popular hybrid versions of the 2025 Kia Sportage listed by lead-generation platform TrueCar exceeded the MSRP.
Consumer reservations towards EVs stem from concerns about battery longevity and replacement costs. While EV batteries typically have lengthy lifespans and robust warranties, the exorbitant cost of replacement remains a deterrent.
Replacing the battery of a Chevrolet Bolt can cost between $17,000 and $19,000, including labor, while a Tesla Model 3 battery replacement falls in the $15,000 to $18,000 range. These factors contribute to substantial depreciation of EVs and raise anxieties among buyers regarding potential expenses outweighing the vehicle’s value.
Moreover, inadequate access to charging infrastructure poses a challenge for potential EV buyers, particularly those residing in multi-unit dwellings where home charging is impractical. Concerns about long-distance travel and potential power depletion also deter many from adopting EVs.
Hybrids address several of these apprehensions, as they do not necessitate charging for non-plug-in variants, utilize regenerative braking for energy, consume gasoline for extended journeys, and feature smaller, more affordable batteries.
Conversely, hybrid sales have surged, with hybrid sales climbing 41% and plug-in hybrid sales skyrocketing by 49%.
Enhanced Attractiveness of Ford Stock
From my perspective, Ford’s strategic pivot towards hybrid vehicles is a well-calculated move. While EVs will remain within the company’s portfolio, the emphasis will likely be on segments where Ford holds dominant positions, such as pick-up trucks.
Consumer preferences currently favor hybrids, reflecting a continued trend likely to persist due to their cost-saving benefits and alleviation of EV-related concerns and obstacles. Consequently, realigning its strategy is expected to position Ford favorably in the long term.
Presently, Ford boasts a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio slightly above 5.7 and an enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 11 times, representing a premium over rival General Motors (NYSE: GM), likely attributed to GM’s substantial exposure in the Chinese market.
Overall, Ford’s strategic transition away from EVs, where losses accumulated, towards hybrids represents a shrewd move. This step underscores Ford’s sharpened focus, assuring investors of its departure from unprofitable ventures.
While challenges lay ahead, Ford’s recent strategic shift positions it as a more appealing long-term investment compared to its previous standing.
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