Key Points
Elon Musk forecasts a significant acceleration in SpaceX’s growth, predicting that the company will generate $1 trillion in revenue in 2030.
However, Nvidia’s significantly larger revenue base, robust growth, and a huge addressable market suggest it is more likely than SpaceX to achieve that milestone in the next five years.
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Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) created history this month by pulling off a record initial public offering (IPO) in which it raised $75 billion. The Elon Musk-led company, popularly known as SpaceX, is now valued at $2.66 trillion.
SpaceX is in the business of designing, manufacturing, and launching rockets and spacecraft. The company aims to cut space transportation costs through its reusable rockets. Additionally, it offers high-speed internet to users in remote locations through Starlink. Musk has high expectations for SpaceX, which generated $18.7 billion in revenue last year, up 33% from 2024 levels.
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He predicts that SpaceX could generate a whopping $1 trillion in annual revenue in 2030. Is that really possible?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
SpaceX is poised to grow remarkably over the next five years
Musk’s target seems quite ambitious, given SpaceX’s 2025 revenue and growth rate. Wall Street has significantly conservative forecasts. Morgan Stanley, for instance, expects SpaceX to generate $330 billion in revenue in 2030. Goldman Sachs is slightly more ambitious, expecting SpaceX’s top line to reach $470 billion by the end of the decade.
The two investment banks are clearly forecasting impressive top-line growth for SpaceX over the next five years. However, they still expect it to fall way short of Musk’s target. In fact, SpaceX will have to increase its revenue at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 122% to reach that milestone in five years.
To achieve such stellar revenue growth, SpaceX will have to launch significantly more rockets, make a mark in the highly competitive artificial intelligence (AI) space, and aggressively expand its Starlink satellite network. So, it remains to be seen whether SpaceX indeed reaches Musk’s trillion-dollar revenue target in 2030, as the company will have to fire on all cylinders and significantly accelerate growth to get there.
However, another company is more likely to reach this milestone by the end of the decade — Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). Let’s see why this AI chip giant seems more likely to achieve $1 trillion in annual revenue in 2030 compared to SpaceX.
Nvidia has a massive revenue base, and its growth is still accelerating
Nvidia, the largest company in the world, is expected to clock $392 billion in revenue in fiscal 2027 (which will end in January 2027). That would be an improvement of 82% from the year-ago period. What’s worth noting is that Nvidia reported a 65% jump in revenue in fiscal 2026. However, the arrival of Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin AI processors and the popularity of its Blackwell chip systems are poised to significantly accelerate its growth.
Investors will do well to note that Nvidia expects to sell at least $1 trillion worth of its Vera Rubin and Blackwell chips in 2026 and 2027. The company’s earlier forecast called for $500 billion in revenue from these two generations of chips in 2025 and 2026. Don’t be surprised to see the demand for Nvidia’s chips to increase at a brisk pace through the end of the decade.
McKinsey estimates that global AI data center spending could reach $7 trillion by 2030. The Center for Strategic and International Studies notes that semiconductors will account for 54% of data center spending, suggesting the AI chip market could be worth more than $3.5 trillion in five years. As Nvidia sells entire chip systems that integrate graphics processing units (GPUs), server processors, memory, and networking components into a rack-scale platform, it is well-placed to capitalize on the massive end-market opportunity.
Nvidia’s market share in AI accelerator chips reportedly stood at 80% to 90% last year. Even if Nvidia’s market share slips to just 33% over five years, it could still see its revenue grow to $1 trillion by the end of the decade, given the size of the addressable market discussed above. Additionally, Nvidia has begun to benefit from the next phase of AI applications — humanoid robots and robotaxis.
The market for these applications, which are part of a broader AI subgroup known as physical AI, could be worth a whopping $960 billion in 2033. So, there is ample growth potential for Nvidia beyond just data center chips, as the deployment of AI in physical objects such as cars, drones, and robots could open a much larger market in the long run.
Analysts are expecting Nvidia’s revenue to grow to $670 billion in fiscal 2029 (which will end in January 2029).
Data by YCharts
Of course, the chart above shows that its annual revenue growth rate is poised to gradually slow down to 22% in a couple of years. However, it could do better than that, as the points discussed above suggest. But even if Nvidia maintains its fiscal 2029 growth rate of 22% for another two years, its top line could reach $998 billion in fiscal 2031, just shy of $1 trillion.
Nvidia’s fiscal 2031 will coincide with the majority of calendar year 2030 (as it will end in January 2031). So, this AI stock seems to have an easier path to $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 than SpaceX, and it also suggests Nvidia investors can expect more upside in the long run.
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Harsh Chauhan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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