Key Points
SpaceX’s 2025 revenue was $18.7 billion, but one prediction sees annual revenue rising to $3.4 trillion in 2040.
If SpaceX generated $3.6 trillion in annual revenue by 2040, a price-to-sales ratio of 5 would support a market cap of roughly $18 trillion.
No company in the world generates that much in annual revenue, but SpaceX is no ordinary company.
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Let’s cut to the chase. An investment in Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) today could very well grow your net worth tenfold if — stay with me — annual revenue grows at an average rate of about 42% for the next 15 years, or 23% over the next 25 years.
If either came true, annual revenue would reach about $3.6 trillion, which is strikingly close to Morgan Stanley‘s 2040 forecast of $3.4 trillion for SpaceX.
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With this in mind, let’s take a closer look at my reasoning to see if this space stock is worth buying today.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
What would it take for SpaceX to grow tenfold?
SpaceX came to the market in mid-June with a lofty valuation. After its debut, the stock followed a ballistic trajectory, launching vertically for a few days before tilting to an angle and dropping sharply. The stock trades at $125, more or less, roughly 44% below its all-time high.
The company reported about $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue, which, broken out by business segment, was composed of $11.4 billion from connectivity, $4.1 billion from space, and $3.2 billion from artificial intelligence. With its $1.8 trillion market valuation, SpaceX trades at about 100 times sales, which means expectations are high, and revenue growth is already assumed.
Analysts at both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predict that SpaceX’s annual revenue will rise above $300 billion by 2030, which, yes, is only a few years from now. If these firms are even remotely correct, then SpaceX’s annual revenue could grow at a staggering rate of about 77%.
Morgan Stanley, as I mentioned above, goes even further: Analysts at the firm project annual revenue of $3.4 trillion in 2040, driven by astonishing growth in the business’s AI segment.
Here’s where a tenfold gain in SpaceX could hypothetically come into play. If annual revenue were $3.6 trillion in 2040 — slightly higher than Morgan Stanley’s prediction — then a price-to-sales ratio of 5 would put its market cap at about $18 trillion. That’s about 10 times what it is today.
That sounds incredible. Could SpaceX really be worth $18 trillion in 2040?
If that sounds incredible, that’s because it is. No company in the world is worth $18 trillion. Only one, Nvidia, has traded above a $5 trillion valuation, and only two, Amazon and Walmart, have trailing-12-month revenue topping $700 billion.
SpaceX, however, is an extraordinary company, one that could break through barriers that once felt impenetrable. If Starlink becomes a dominant global communications network, if Starship radically lowers the cost of reaching orbit, if its AI segment grows into a multi-trillion-dollar business, SpaceX could eventually reach a point no company has reached before.
Just be careful not to over-speculate. If any one of these three businesses performs poorly — I’m looking at you, Grok — the tenfold-return scenario could fall straight out of the sky. Indeed, never forget (for now) that this trillion-dollar company is generating less than $20 billion in revenue. Size your positions according to your risk tolerance, or wait for the valuation to come back down to earth before jumping in.
Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now?
Before you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies, consider this:
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Steven Porrello has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Goldman Sachs Group, Nvidia, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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